I think I agree with most of those points. In the wider academic community (particularly scientific journals) there is an increasing drive towards open-access publishing, and it is hard to imagine the legal world not following, sooner or later.
I do however have two problems with O’Keefe’s conclusions.
First, lawyers value authority above all. They are - entirely understandably - scared of being wrong, because the stakes are so often so high. They therefore need to be sure that what they are advising their clients is correct, and if it isn’t, they need to be able to point a finger. That is what law firms pay companies like LexisNexis and Westlaw for - to be right, and if not right, then to be a scapegoat.
Second, O’Keefe appears to be considering only the market for legal commentary and journals. In the UK (and likely very soon in the US), there is a rapidly accelerating demand for practical legal guidance. This type of content - checklists, flowcharts, precedents - is necessarily basic and therefore quite boring to write. Why would any of O’Keefe’s expert, “narrow niche” bloggers want to churn out ‘how-to’ documents unless they were being directly remunerated for doing so? Whilst there is a demand for these basic type documents, legal bloggers won’t feel the customer need because - in O’Keefe’s market vision - they won’t have any ‘customers’.
I think it is highly likely that O’Keefe is right, and that some aspects of legal publishing will become freely available - a change driven by the legal blogging community. Indeed, this is a change that is already well progressed - it is not so long ago that you had to pay to view government legislation, and BAILLI are doing their best to make cases free too. I think it very likely that the market for closed, costly legal journals will shrink, to be replaced by expert bloggers writing as a means to boost business development. I just don’t think that the change will be as cataclysmic as either O’Keefe or Thompson suggest.